Things That Make You Go Hmmm...

Thinking about the 12 Days of Christmas reminds us of one of the most effective argument strategies we see: Use a couple of numbers.

Magazines are well aware of this approach. Just look at the monthly covers trumpeting lists such as “Top 100 colleges,” “400 richest Americans,” and the women’s magazine classic, “Seven Ways to Please Your Man!”

Recently we watched jurors deliberate a case in which a doctor failed to diagnose an extremely rare disease in an obese patient. The patient’s presenting symptoms: moderate muscle pain and high blood pressure. The doctor assumed a pulled muscle and too many Big Macs, and said to come back if the pain persisted. The true pain source turned out to be an extremely rare, deadly bacteria.

During discussions, plaintiff-leaning jurors zeroed in on the prevailing predisposition that “doctors are rushed and don’t spend enough time with patients.” Unfortunately, the initial pushback by defense-leaning jurors was weak: “Doctors can’t always diagnose these rare conditions right away.” The problem here was that plaintiff jurors simply could not understand just how little information the patient’s symptoms provided the doctor.

Adding a number helped change this. Jurors were introduced to some statistics: There are approximately 5,100 potential diagnoses for the combined symptoms of pain and high blood pressure. During deliberations, the defense-leaning jurors effectively adopted this number as their theme and supported it with another number: The disease occurs in no more than one in every 305,000 people.

Happy holidays and the very best wishes for the New Year.